Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the answer here is really 'all of the above'. It's not clear that one policy on its own will be enough to improve our growth prospects: there is no 'silver bullet'. Rather, it will be important to enact a set of policies addressing all of the different problems discussed in the above text.
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Labor force participation
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
All of the options will matter for 2023 to some degree. In the longer run, (hopefully) the war will end and people will return to the labour force, leaving policy uncertainty, Brexit and workforce skills the most important issues holding back UK growth.
Question 3: Given the desired amount of deficit reduction, the Autumn Statement on balance:
Answer:
Should have relied more on tax increases
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Public services have already been cut to the bone. We are going to have to realise as a nation that if we want better public services we need to pay for them through higher taxes.
Question 2: Relative to the Autumn statement, would the UK be better off reducing public debt
Answer:
Substantially slower
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Again, the need at the moment is to loosen fiscal policy so as to help struggling households deal with the cost-of-living crisis.
Question 1: How necessary was it for the UK government to lower its deficit through tax increases or spending cuts in November 2022?
Answer:
Absolutely necessary
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The point was not whether or not they had to lower the deficit but whether they couldn't have left even more of that tightening to a time in the future, given the need to actually loosen fiscal policy to help support struggling households at the moment.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Addressing UK public finances after the mini-budget crisis
Question 3: Given the desired amount of deficit reduction, the Autumn Statement on balance:
Question 2: Relative to the Autumn statement, would the UK be better off reducing public debt
Question 1: How necessary was it for the UK government to lower its deficit through tax increases or spending cuts in November 2022?
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