Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.
Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
It would clearly be preferable if politicians made greater efforts in terms of reform. It is highly likely that long-term growth could be increased if politicians "get their act together". In the short run, ECB policy is stimulative and keeps growth higher than it might otherwise be and,in that sense, it can be said to be "masking" the structural problems of the Euro area. However, it is also plausible that politicians will find it easier to enact significant reforms when the economy is in an upswing than when it is in a recession. Therefore, i am not sure that the fact that politicians have not done enough would,in any way, justify a tapering of monetary stimulus by the ECB.Indeed, i would argue that continuing the current level of asset purchases makes it more likely that politicians will eventually do some of the correct things.
Unemployment remains well above any reasonable estimate of its equilibrium level and forecast inflation is below target.To have a central bank not trying to achieve the target it set for itself would further undermine its credibility. Premature tightening/tapering now would abort the recovery,increase intra-European spreads and lead to increased tensions within the monetary union. It is highly likely that it would come to be seen as significant policy mistake.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Future of Central Bank Independence
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Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.
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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?
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German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?
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Question 1: Do you agree that exceptionally loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank is no longer appropriate?
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