Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
Monetary policy makers should be careful with interpreting inflationary expectations but must also be aware of large overliquidity they have created by their expansionary monetary policies after the financial crisis and react quickly when real wage developments are going out of hand.
There is no substantial empirical evidence that the Phillips curve relationship has weakened permanently not that a strong labour market shouldn’t be a good indicator of building inflationary pressure. Mario Draghi is right that we must be careful with interpreting inflationary expectations.
The regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased by the ECB, Federal Reserve and Bank of England because of the threat to the stability of the financial system (see question 1) by undermining the monopoly of money creation by the central banks and the ineffectiveness of conventional and unconventional monetary policy and by the systemic risk of cryptocurrencies.
Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
The increase of volume of cryptocurrencies, the launching of Europe’s first Bitcoin mutual fund and the U.S. acceptance to list futures contracts on Bitcoin imply a threat to the stability of the financial system in the coming years on which the ECB and Federal Reserve should act upon. The Bitcoin bubble is an example of a speculative bubble that can be explained rationally from an individual perspective but not from a collective perspective and is comparable with Tulpenmania.
The more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will certainly slow UK GPD growth significantly because it is accompanied by the uncertainty about the financial and trade relations with the European continent caused by the Brexit negotiations and the unclear British positions.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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Bitcoin and the City
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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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