Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
Answer:
Yes
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If the mandate were changed by EZ member states, then yes. But I would not support the ECB doing this autonomously.
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Answer:
Tax increases
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I'd have preferred an option to say 'tax increases and public spending cuts'. Obviously many of the support measures will fade as the pandemic passes [presuming it does]. I wrote 'tax increases' to signal that in the longer term a larger and more resilient state is likely to be needed to put us in a better position to fight future pandemics, and also to redress some fo the regressive aspects of them [eg higher pay for teaches/healthworkers, more and better quality social housing].
Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?
Answer:
There is no need to take or announce any budgetary actions to reduce the deficit or the public debt until the end of the pandemic
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Deficit spending now is needed to ensure continued compliance with the lockdown, and to minimise the risk of an overhang from the self-engineered shutdown when restrictions are lifted. It will also be needed for some time to come after restrictions are lifted. A fiscal contraction now would be counter-productive.
Question 3: Which would be the maximal public debt you would be willing to tolerate if used effectively (as in your answers to 1 and 2 above) to support an economic recovery?
Answer:
>140% of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
With real rates so low, I don't think worries about the debt burden should or will constrain aid and stimulus to counter the effects of the virus crisis. What will constrain it is politics and the administrative unpreparedness of the tax and benefit system to do it quickly and error free.
Question 2: Which of the following would have the second greatest impact in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus economic crisis in the UK?
Answer:
Government transfers to and bailouts of businesses
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The ECB’s Green Agenda
Question 2: Would you support changing the ECB’s mandate to incorporate the EU’s target of carbon neutrality by 2050, if such a change is deemed legally necessary to adopt your preferred approach?
COVID-19 and UK Public Finances
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?
Covid-19: Economic Policy Response
Question 3: Which would be the maximal public debt you would be willing to tolerate if used effectively (as in your answers to 1 and 2 above) to support an economic recovery?
Question 2: Which of the following would have the second greatest impact in mitigating the economic effects of the coronavirus economic crisis in the UK?
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