Wendy Carlin's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Should the ECB Reformulate its Inflation Objective?

Question 3: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly recognize unemployment and/or economic growth as a secondary aim, secondary to its price stability mandate.”

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The existing ECB official objective can be interpreted this way. But the main problem is the heterogeneity of member country economic performance - recall the divergent performance of members prior to the global finance crisis. With some countries booming and others stagnating, it is not clear how a true dual mandate could work in the eurozone.

Question 2: Would you support increasing the ECB’s inflation target to a higher rate of inflation than the current 2% target?

Answer:
Neither support nor oppose
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The arguments for raising the inflation target are quite compelling given the forces keeping the long run equilibrium real rate of interest low. But it would need to be a coordinated move by central banks to a higher target to avoid e.g. if the EBC were to do this alone, the trend nominal depreciation of the euro (in equilibrium), which might be difficult for a wider public to understand.

Question 1: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly state that it will allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target following extended periods of low inflation.”

Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This is important as part of the restoration of the role of monetary policy in stabilization, and for a second scenario. If inflation expectations are partially anchored on the inflation target and there is hysteresis, then following a negative demand shock, allowing inflation to rise above target is part of a strategy that (implicitly) targets the pre-recession output level, avoiding a permanent loss of output arising from scarring.

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The accumulating evidence points in this direction.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The evidence suggests this will be especially the case for young children missing out on school.

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