Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?
Answer:
Yes
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
For fairness and efficiency reasons.
Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?
Answer:
Conditional/targeted transfers
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This is a very complicated market, which I don't fully understand..And I don't understand the ramifications of the various policies (e.g. for the providers). Policy design should ensure fair access to energy, abolish the standing charges, and maintain a price signal to incentivize energy conservation.
Question 1: Overall, which of the following best characterises how the government’s proposed energy policies will leave the average UK household over the medium term:
Answer:
Worse off
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It's not clear what the counterfactual is but given the size of the negative external terms of trade shock, the average household will be worse off. This is exacerbated by poorly designed energy policy compounded by the recent fiscal policy mistakes - so definitely worse off than necessary.
Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
On the aggregate demand side, deflationary forces from the fiscal and monetary sides combined with the squeaze on living standards dampening consumption of lower and middle income households will act to reduce inflation; on the supply side some of the global factors exacerbating inflationary pressure will likely ease. The damage to potential output is still unclear, however. Meanwhile, there is little sign of systematic wage increases building in lagged inflation. So, on balance, inflation may ease back somewhat in 2023.
Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?
Answer:
No opinion or other
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
For the UK, base effects, energy price rises, and the pandemic-induced distortion in consumer demand from services toward durable goods (interacting with a similar global pattern plus supply chain disruption) account for the rise in inflation in 2021. So, a cocktail of supply-side factors was responsible (rather than excess aggregate demand or inflation expectations).
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Assisting Households Facing Rising Energy Costs
Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?
Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?
Question 1: Overall, which of the following best characterises how the government’s proposed energy policies will leave the average UK household over the medium term:
Surging Inflation in the UK
Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?
Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?
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