Wendy Carlin's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
There are no clear fiscal benefits to Scotland from independence. However, benefits for Scotland could emerge if the UK government were to adopt policies damaging to the economy on immigration or EU membership that an independent Scotland could choose to avoid.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A balanced recovery in the UK depends on the growth of net exports and therefore on growth in the Euro Area.

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Although I don't believe deflation is likely, the evidence of anchored inflation expectations supports the loosening of monetary policy by the ECB to boost growth in the Euro Area. Sustained very low inflation not only deflation is likely to depress growth expectations and growth.

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The exit of an economy from a financial crisis is not well understood (the cases of Japan and Sweden in the 1990s provide strongly contrasting examples - and there was not the complication of global effects at that time). The recent UK recovery is unbalanced but we have seen unbalanced growth continue for many years before.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I remain puzzled by the productivity performance and wage behaviour of the UK economy over the past 5 years, which makes it difficult to take a strong view about the size of the output gap.

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