Wendy Carlin's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

The UK Productivity Puzzle

Question 4: Which of the following policies would be your second choice of policy to boost private sector productivity, in addition to or absent your first choice?

Answer:
None of the above, other, or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
See previous comment.

In the last two questions you are asked which government policies are best suited to help the UK emerge from its productivity growth slowdown. Question 3 asks for your most preferred policy option, while question 4 asks for your second choice. You may use the comment section to outline specific policy recommendations.

Question 3: Which of the following policies would best help improve private sector productivity?

Answer:
None of the above, other, or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Aggregate demand has recovered and unemployment is very low but investment and productivity growth remain weak reflecting weak confidence of business in the future growth of their markets. Policies to reduce uncertainty about demand management (in the event of a recession) and to direct innovation - for the zero carbon transition, for example, are likely to be helpful.

Question 2: Which of the following was the second most important cause for the slowdown in UK productivity growth?

Answer:
(Insufficient) investment in research and development
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The logic was explained in the previous comment but it is difficult to know the relative importance of R&D investment as compared with business fixed investment. Measurement issues may also have become more important over the past decade with the increasing role of intangible investment.

Question 1: Which of the following was the most important cause for the slowdown in UK productivity growth?

Answer:
Low demand (including due to the financial crisis, austerity policies, or Brexit)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Productivity improvements depend on R&D and on business investment (new technology embodied in new equipment, for example). Both are depressed by low expectations of future market growth, which has been the case since the crisis.

A “new” UK industrial strategy ?

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Question 2: Do you agree that the UK needs a new regional policy?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The focus should be on a productivity policy for cities and on understanding the difference between dynamic cities and those that are left behind.

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