Wendy Carlin's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

The UK Productivity Puzzle

Question 1: Which of the following was the most important cause for the slowdown in UK productivity growth?

Answer:
Low demand (including due to the financial crisis, austerity policies, or Brexit)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Productivity improvements depend on R&D and on business investment (new technology embodied in new equipment, for example). Both are depressed by low expectations of future market growth, which has been the case since the crisis.

A “new” UK industrial strategy ?

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Question 2: Do you agree that the UK needs a new regional policy?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The focus should be on a productivity policy for cities and on understanding the difference between dynamic cities and those that are left behind.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the UK needs a new industrial policy?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If a new industrial policy is interpreted as a policy oriented at productivity growth involving private and public sector collaboration, then this is needed.

The Future of Central Bank Independence

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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the question is poorly framed. Recognition by the CB and the government that raising inflation to the target is a shared responsibility is required. It is not obvious that this undermines CB independence.

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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In spite of the use of QE, it appears that fiscal policy is needed to generate sufficient demand and, as a result, to raise inflation and inflation expectations to the CB's target. When the economy is at the ZLB, the credibility of the CB's inflation target is undermined. If fiscal policy is brought in to play to help bring inflation back up to target, this could be interpreted as reducing the CB's independence. Alternatively, it could be interpreted as recognition that the model of central bank independence is inadequate when the economy is mired at the ZLB.

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