Wendy Carlin's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Should the ECB Reformulate its Inflation Objective?

Question 2: Would you support increasing the ECB’s inflation target to a higher rate of inflation than the current 2% target?

Answer:
Neither support nor oppose
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The arguments for raising the inflation target are quite compelling given the forces keeping the long run equilibrium real rate of interest low. But it would need to be a coordinated move by central banks to a higher target to avoid e.g. if the EBC were to do this alone, the trend nominal depreciation of the euro (in equilibrium), which might be difficult for a wider public to understand.

Question 1: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly state that it will allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target following extended periods of low inflation.”

Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This is important as part of the restoration of the role of monetary policy in stabilization, and for a second scenario. If inflation expectations are partially anchored on the inflation target and there is hysteresis, then following a negative demand shock, allowing inflation to rise above target is part of a strategy that (implicitly) targets the pre-recession output level, avoiding a permanent loss of output arising from scarring.

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The accumulating evidence points in this direction.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The evidence suggests this will be especially the case for young children missing out on school.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Minor
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
There are a great many factors intervening between school closures and economic growth over that horizon; and growth itself is very difficult to predict. Possibly important is the effect of prolonged school closures on attrition of the teaching workforce and on recruitment into teaching. It would be good to see research on that.

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