Wouter Den Haan's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
By a large amount but temporarily
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This is a hard one. I really hope that we can make the negative impact temporarily but it will require institutions to recognise this and to take compensating actions.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
By a large amount and persistently
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It already is the case that talented kids from disadvantaged neighbourhoods have a hard time of getting into the better jobs and higher-education institutions. School closures will make it harder for these kids to prove they do have the skills.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Moderate
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
We know that education matters and I can only expect that globalisation has made the educational attainment of the UK more important.

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
Private debt and financial markets (e.g. debt overhang, bank failures)
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
But business failures must matter as well

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will rapidly return to its pre-crisis growth trend, but there will be a permanent effect on the level of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This estimate is conditional on the government not quickly reverting to austerity policies to bring debt to GDP ratios down.

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