Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Answer:
Global factors
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The arguments given for upward pressure on inflation are good ones. But we still have persistent downward pressures. I don't know which ones are going to dominate.
Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
Answer:
Large tradeoff
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
In the short-run there definitely is an important trade-off. I guess one could argue that if health issues are ignored then the consequences of the pandemic really become overwhelming with hospitals not being able to cope, many people being sick for long periods of time, and lots of people dying. This would be bad for livelihoods since one cannot work if one is sick (or dead). And such a disastrous outcome could have further negative consequences such as complete distrust in the government. So it is in principle possible that there are some long-run economic benefits of focusing on health at the cost of short-term economic damage.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?
Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?
Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance
Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
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