Wouter Den Haan's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Not confident

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
Large tradeoff
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
In the short-run there definitely is an important trade-off. I guess one could argue that if health issues are ignored then the consequences of the pandemic really become overwhelming with hospitals not being able to cope, many people being sick for long periods of time, and lots of people dying. This would be bad for livelihoods since one cannot work if one is sick (or dead). And such a disastrous outcome could have further negative consequences such as complete distrust in the government. So it is in principle possible that there are some long-run economic benefits of focusing on health at the cost of short-term economic damage.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Large damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I interpret large to mean substantial but clearly not as big as the downfall of the first lock down.

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A substantial portion or the entire decline
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Although there definitely will be some voluntary social distancing but it wouldn't come close to what was brought about by the first lockdown.

Pages