Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Answer:
Private debt and financial markets (e.g. debt overhang, bank failures)
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
But business failures must matter as well
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
Answer:
The economy will rapidly return to its pre-crisis growth trend, but there will be a permanent effect on the level of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This estimate is conditional on the government not quickly reverting to austerity policies to bring debt to GDP ratios down.
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Answer:
Tax increases
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I am sure it will have to be a combination of the set listed, but I chose tax increases because after so many years of austerity we should be careful with further erosion of government services (the cost of which has become very clear during the pandemic)
Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?
Answer:
There is no need to take or announce any budgetary actions to reduce the deficit or the public debt until the end of the pandemic
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
we know countries like the UK can deal with high debt levels and right now there are obviously more important concerns
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
COVID-19 and UK Public Finances
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?
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